TMS Insights October 2025: The commodities perfect storm
Underowned, heavily shorted, and suddenly on fire. In this episode of TMS Insights, Ben and Jeremy unpack the perfect storm driving commodities, and why they're steering clear of the gold rush.
In this episode:
- Iron ore rebounds from under $90 to $106 as short covering, institutional rewighting and speculative money pile into a sector that spent three years in the doldrums.
- Gold tops the survey of the world's most overowned trades, and one fund manager's maths says the gold price needs to rise further just to justify current market caps.
- OpenAI's deals with Broadcom and AMD put the AI build-out on what feels like a wartime footing, with AI spend now estimated at half of US GDP growth.
- Fund managers rotating into resources are selling growth stocks to fund it, creating value in businesses whose outlooks haven't changed.
- And common sense prevails on super, with the proposed changes wound back sharply, a lesson for anyone who acted before the legislation existed.
Companies discussed: BHP (BHP), Broadcom (AVGO), AMD (AMD) and OpenAI.
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